Classifying COVID-19 variants based on genetic sequences using deep learning models (preprint)

The COrona VIrus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic led to the occurrence of several variants with time. This has led to an increased importance of understanding sequence data related to COVID-19. In this chapter, we propose an alignment-free k-mer based LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) deep learning model that can classify 20 different variants of COVID-19. We handle the class imbalance problem by sampling a fixed number of sequences for each class label. We handle the vanishing gradient problem in LSTMs arising from long sequences by dividing the sequence into fixed lengths and obtaining results on individual runs. Our results show that one- vs-all classifiers have test accuracies as high as 92.5% with tuned hyperparameters compared to the multi-class classifier model. Our experiments show higher overall accuracies for B.1.1.214, B.1.177.21, B.1.1.7, B.1.526, and P.1 on the one-vs-all classifiers, suggesting the presence of distinct mutations in these variants. Our results show that embedding vector size and batch sizes have insignificant improvement in accuracies, but changing from 2-mers to 3-mers mostly improves accuracies. We also studied individual runs which show that most accuracies improved after the 20th run, indicating that these sequence positions may have more contributions to distinguishing among different COVID-19 variants.

Going by the Numbers : Learning and Modeling COVID-19 Disease Dynamics (preprint)

The COrona VIrus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) has resulted in a challenging number of infections and deaths worldwide. In order to combat the pandemic, several countries worldwide enforced mitigation measures in the forms of lockdowns, social distancing and disinfection measures. In an effort to understand the dynamics of this disease, we propose a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) based model. We train our model on nearly four months of cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths. Our model can be adjusted based on the parameters in order to provide predictions as needed. We provide results at both the country and county levels. We also perform a quantitative comparison of mitigation measures in various counties in the United States based on the rate of difference of a short and long window parameter of the proposed LSTM model. The analyses provided by our model can provide valuable insights based on the trends in the rate of infections and deaths. This can also be of help for countries and counties deciding on mitigation and reopening strategies. We believe that the results obtained from the proposed method will contribute to societal benefits for a current global concern.